21-09-2012
Euro Rescue, Qe3 Complicates Efforts
| Talks on a possible Spainsh bail-out are once again favouring risk assets, but it is very unlikely that Spain will ask aids that would be conditional to further sacrifices for the population, pension freezing is one of the topics on the table. This is even more true now that Euro has appreciated 8% against dollar over the last few weeks. "Internal devaluation" the process of regaining compettiveness through lower labour cost is even more painful now. QE3 works against any euro effort, possibly triggering a currency war as Brasilian finance minister Mantega points out. Also BCE promised intervention is conditional to Spain bailout. That is not possible if Germany does not substitute Spain through increased guarantees to the ESM. But that would require raising the maximum limit that German High Court has recently imposed to German commitment. Equity markets are betting on something that it is not likely to happen. While QE3 will likely support US equity market for sometime, investors who took advantage of recent European equity rally should consider a quick cash-in. 一个的可能Spainsh保释的会谈再次有利于风险资产，但ITI是不太可能，西班牙将要求艾滋病是有条件的人口更多的牺牲，养老金冻结在桌子上的议题之一。这是更真实，在过去的几周内，欧元兑美元已升值8％。 “内部贬值”的过程中，的恢复compettiveness通过较低的劳动力成本是更痛苦的了。 QE3的作品对任何欧元区的努力，可能引发货币战巴西财政部长曼特加指出。 此外，BCE承诺是有条件的干预西班牙的救助。这是不可能的，如果德国不取代西班牙通过增加担保的ESM。但是，这将需要提高的最高限额，德国高等法院最近颁布德国承诺。 股票市场下注，这是不太可能发生的事。虽然QE3可能会支持美国股市了一段时间，，趁着最近欧洲股市反弹的投资者应考虑快速现金。 |