01-09-2012
Things Bernanke Did Not Say 伯南克没有说的事情
| It was not much what emerged from Bernanke's words, but the market seemed to decide that a new round of quantitative easing is just around the corner. As it is often the case, media expand on often laconic comments by central bankers to draw conclusions that are all but warranted. What Bernanke did not say is that Fed would still Warrant an extended period of exceptionally low rates; some members of Fed Committee believe that this could start having deflationary consequences. We do not expect a new round of QE will be announced at next Fed meeting; BCE might have disappointed on September 6th and Fed meeting will coincide with decisions from Germany on the permanent rescue fund. Contrary to Bernanke's opinion, there is growing concern among other members of the Committee that unemployment might have structural rather than cyclical explanations. If that is the case it is only when Europe eventually will embark on a process of political convergence that unemployment could start dropping, both in Europe an the US. 这不是从伯南克的话，但市场似乎决定了新一轮的量化宽松政策是指日可待。由于它是经常发生的情况，媒体扩大往往是简洁的注释央行行长得出结论，但保证。伯南克没有说的是，美联储将继续保证长时间异常低的利率，联邦储备委员会的一些成员认为，这可能开始有通货紧缩的后果。 我们并不期望在下周美联储会议将宣布新一轮的量化宽松政策，BCE9月6日和美联储会议一致决定从德国的永久救助基金可能会感到失望。相反，伯南克认为，有越来越多的关注，委员会的其他成员，失业率可能有结构性的，而不是周期性的解释。 如果是这样的话，只有当欧洲最终将走上政治收敛的过程中，失业率可能开始下降，无论是在欧洲和美国。 |